I was riding to a lecture today in Davis and talking with a friend about the swine flu, a topic which we fell on because either my lunch didn't agree with me or I am succoumbing to the piglet virus. Either way we were talking about how way over hyped the whole thing is which led to the observation that neither of us had noticed economic news lately. I know it's been getting reported on but in general it appears to be taking a back seat to the pig flu. In recent days as the swine flu hysteria has heated up I've sought out the BBC more and more as a respite from the non-stop flu mania on U.S. media. History has proven that we're a nation of folks who like to get worked up about things. Really, really worked up. When the ol' swine flu horse is finally good and dead I wonder what we'll all be freakin' out about next...
FDR: In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.
ReplyDeleteBe that the case, or not...people really need to get some perspective on swine-flu. I feel it's all a facade, to cover up the real issues we ought to be talking about.
PS. I trust the BBC as a source of information as much as I trust CNN, which is not very much at all. Nowadays, it's just another source of infotainment. Don't believe the hype :)
I listen to APM's Marketplace on a daily religious basis. Even they've turned their economics talk to cover the economics of swine flu. They didn't even go into the deep analysis I was hoping for regarding the Chrysler bankruptcy because they're focusing on the flu. But I guess after swine flu there will be more economic crisis talk. Though to me, that one feels very very real and I don't think the hype is worse than the reality. Here in LA we've hit a little over 10% unemployment, we had massive layoffs at my company and my dad was laid off at his job. So I am surprised so much is being devoted to flu coverage.
ReplyDeleteSuprisingly, I found a BBC article as the swine flu frenzy was warming up that put things in perspective in contrast to what was being reported in American media outlets. At first U.S. media had this non-stop reporting on how many cases were reported in the U.S. and how many people had died in Mexico. I thought wow this is bad and then I found the BBC piece which was the first non-U.S. coverage I read about the outbreak and they pointed out things like the number of folks who die in the U.S, of the common flu every year - don't quote me but I think it's like 250,000 - and the fact that the U.S. cases of swine flu were mild. Interesting. Since then I've noticed NPR to be somewhat balanced though non-stop flu reportage non-the-less.
ReplyDeleteIt's true that as opposed to the swine flu outbreak the economy is a serious fuckin' mess. I can't tell you how many distribution points the mag has lost in recent months. It's scary and sad to be a business owner in these times. Even in regards to real crisis, like the economy, however, there's a difference between level headed coverage and panic. Although, I suppose with someting as real as the economy it's a fine line. There's days were I get freaked out after listening to too much news and then I just have to step away and put things in the proper perspective.
While I think the coverage of the SF has been overblown in a typically breathless 24-hr news cycle way and may have an unintended consequence of panicking people unnecessarily, I do think the story itself is newsworthy. The SF has a mortality of 6%. Compare that with the morality of the Spanish flu epidemic (2.5%) and normal seasonal flu (>0.1%) (here a link to my figures: http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/04/those_swine.php.
ReplyDeleteMore than likely, if the SF becomes a pandemic, the morality percentage will decline. But what if it didn't? That's the "what if" that makes the SF scary.
Still. I take the point that the SF is something we will all probably forget about in two months, whereas the failing economy is an issue that will be with us for months or years.
--Jeff MCCrory (brambles)
I think that %6 figure depends on who your listening too because I've also heard that there aren't as many actual confirmed deaths as a result of SF in Mexico as are being reported. This is the other problem with the breathless media cycle. There are so many facts and figures to consume that you have to be careful in deciding what to believe and what to dismiss.
ReplyDeleteAlso, when folks compare the Spanish flu with SF they leave out because details like 1918 was much different universe compared to 2009. Simple things like we have vaccines today that weren't available 90 years ago tend to get overlooked.
Make that: "Also, when folks compare the Spanish flu with SF they leave out details like 1918 was much different universe compared to 2009."
ReplyDeleteThe 6% comes from the initial 81 deaths out of 1300 reported cases of flu in Mexico.
ReplyDelete"Also, when folks compare the Spanish flu with SF they leave out details like 1918 was much different universe compared to 2009."
I agree with the gist of what you are saying, but I would just add that humans and viruses are in a red queen's race, so there is always the chance that the virus will evolve in ways that will render our medical advances useless.
...Well, until robots take over and dispose of our soft tissue.
--Jeff MCCrory (brambles)
Forget the media, just listen to your president:
ReplyDelete"somebody asked, why is this different from other flus? We don't know for certain that this will end up being more severe than other seasonal flus that we have had. It's been noted I think before that you have over 36,000 die on average every year from seasonal flus; you've have 200,000 hospitalizations.
It may turn out that H1N1 runs its course like ordinary flus, in which case we will have prepared and we won't need all these preparations. The reason that people are concerned is -- the scientists are concerned -- is this is a new strain. So what happens is, is that Americans and people around the world have not built up immunity in the same way that they've built up immunity to the seasonal flus that we're accustomed to. Those seasonal flus may change, mutate slightly from year to year, but they're all roughly in the same band. When you have a new strain, then potentially our immune systems can't deal with it as effectively. And there are indications that in Mexico, at least, what you saw were relatively young, healthy people die from these -- from the H1N1, rather than people whose immune system is already compromised -- older individuals, very small infants, and so forth."
Ah, how nice to have a POTUS who can speak in complete sentences...
More from the Obama flu presser here:
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=05&year=2009&base_name=obama_on_the_flu&3
--Jeff MCCrory (brambles)
I agree with all you have said Liv, we need to focus on what's important. And yet I believe that societies in general are vulnerable to such things as pandemics, natural disasters, etc. Many such things which men have little control over.
ReplyDelete